Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took about 47 percent to President Lula's 45 percent in Sunday's first round, reversing most late polls, with a runoff in three weeks.
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro led President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva out of Sunday's first round, taking about 47 percent to Lula's 45 percent, Al Jazeera reported on Tuesday. Most recent polls had put Lula about three points ahead. A runoff is three weeks away.
Bolsonaro told reporters on election day that he expected a protest vote from people who might otherwise have backed smaller right-wing candidates. Carlos Pereira, a political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, told Al Jazeera that a late shift among those voters was part of the result. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party emerged with the largest bloc in the Senate, Al Jazeera said, and he won nearly four percentage points more than his father did in the 2022 first round.
Valor reported that Monday's market reaction was unusually sharp. The Ibovespa rose 7.70 percent to 206,000 points, its biggest daily gain since the pandemic. The dollar posted its steepest one-session drop in eight years and returned to the 5-real range. Futures rates fell far enough that B3 raised the daily limit twice. Valor said Bolsonaro finished 2.2 million votes ahead of Lula.
J.P. Morgan moved to an overweight on Brazilian stocks. Goldman Sachs described a dollar range of 4.50 to 4.80 reais. Those are bank views, not election results.
The second round has not been held. No concession or governing agreement was announced in the accounts reviewed.
People Sentiments Mixed
- Flavio Bolsonaro said on election day that he expected a protest vote from opponents of Lula.
- Carlos Pereira said part of the late gain came from voters who had planned to back smaller right-wing candidates.