The World Trade Organization raised its 2026 merchandise-trade growth forecast to 3.9 percent from 1.9 percent, citing AI-related goods, and cut its services outlook because of higher aviation fuel costs.
The World Trade Organization raised its forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth to 3.9 percent in 2026, from a 1.9 percent baseline published in March, Reuters reported on Thursday. The Geneva body said demand for AI-related products had offset disruption from the US-Israeli war with Iran.
It now expects 4.1 percent growth in 2027, up from 2.6 percent, and just under the 4.2 percent volume growth recorded in 2025, Reuters said. Trade in semiconductors and AI data-centre products jumped 67 percent from a year earlier. AI-enabling goods accounted for 47 percent of the value of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, and remain geographically concentrated.
The same report cut the services-trade outlook to 3.3 percent in 2026 from 4.8 percent, citing higher aviation fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Volume growth in the first half was 3.5 percent year on year, while the dollar value of trade rose 15 percent, reflecting energy prices and AI goods.
Bloomberg reported the same 3.9 percent goods forecast and the 47 percent AI-goods share. Neither account published a country-by-country table in the news summaries.
The figures are a forecast revision, not a final year-end result.