The World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook says global commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026, driven by energy, with food prices climbing 18% over two years.
Global commodity prices are set to rise 23% in 2026, the World Bank said on 28 October in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, as the conflict in the Middle East draws down oil inventories and disrupts shipping and grain trade. Energy prices are projected to rise 32% in 2026, reversing three years of declines, before moderating in 2027, and the Bank says overall prices should then fall 7% in 2027.
Brent crude is forecast to average 91 dollars a barrel in 2026, up from 69 dollars in 2025, before easing to 79 dollars in 2027. Food commodity prices are expected to rise about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, a cumulative 18%, as conflict disrupts grain shipments, El Nino threatens harvests, and high fuel and fertiliser prices raise farm costs. Global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2% in 2026, the largest drop in more than four decades outside the 2020 recession, while consumption is expected to fall 2.5%.
Metals prices are set to reach a new high in 2026, rising 25% as aluminium, copper and tin hit record highs on demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres, and precious metals prices are forecast to rise 40% on demand for safe-haven assets. Fertiliser prices are set to rise 14% in 2026. The Bank has made 50 to 60 billion dollars available through existing instruments, including 25 billion in pre-arranged financing, to support social safety nets and working capital for firms and farms.
These figures are the Bank's own forecasts, published in its press release for the Outlook, and Reuters' reporting of the release matches the headline 23% figure and the drivers the Bank names: rising energy prices, cargo shipping disruption during the Middle East war, Black Sea grain problems and demand for gold. The forecasts assume no major intensification of conflicts affecting commodity supplies, so they are projections under stated conditions rather than observed prices.
The Bank's deputy chief economist, Ayhan Kose, said commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once, and that higher energy costs and trade disruptions threaten to worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth, with the priority being to protect the poorest people and support low-income countries already carrying heavy debt burdens.
The risk case in the Outlook shows what would change the picture: if the Middle East conflict escalates, damage to Russian oil infrastructure persists, Black Sea grain shipments come under attack and a very strong El Nino arrives together, Brent could average 105 dollars a barrel in 2027 and food prices could run 12% above the baseline forecast, above their 2022 level. The next edition of the Outlook will test whether those risks materialised.