The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 91.7 in October from an upwardly revised 84.2 in September, surprising economists who had expected a decline.
United States consumer confidence improved sharply in October, with The Conference Board's index jumping to 91.7 from an upwardly revised 84.2 in September, a result that surprised economists who had expected the index to fall.
The present situation index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labour market conditions, rose to 120.4 in October from 111.8 in September, while the expectations index, based on the short-term outlook for income, business and labour market conditions, climbed to 72.6 from 65.7. Consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations declined in October but remained elevated at 5.8%, and consumers still expected higher interest rates over the next 12 months. Plans to buy autos and homes declined slightly on a six-month moving average basis, planned spending on durable goods dropped across the board, and vacation plans dipped, with 43.3% of consumers planning a vacation in the next six months, down from an upwardly revised 44.2% in September.
Senior economist Fergus McCormick said the recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October, while adding that despite the increase, consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that has persisted over the past few years. A separate survey, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, was revised up to 48.0 for October from a preliminary 46.3, still down from 48.1 in September and 10.4% below the 53.6 recorded in October 2025.
The Board's own release is the primary source for the headline figures, and its September figure is an upward revision: the index had originally been reported at 81.9, which is why previews that used the unrevised figure expected a fall to around 80.4. The Michigan figure comes from a different survey with its own methods and should not be read as a second measure of the same index, and the planned-spending details are consumers' stated intentions, not recorded purchases.
The timing gives the release weight beyond the household survey itself: the Federal Reserve's policy decision is due on Wednesday, with markets widely expecting rates to hold, and a stronger-than-expected consumer reading feeds into that debate about whether demand is cooling or holding up. The next confidence release and the Fed's decision and press conference will show whether October's rebound was a gasoline-price bounce or the start of a steadier recovery.