Germany's trade deficit with Asia-Pacific is set to reach a record of nearly 146 billion euros in 2026, according to a Germany Trade and Invest report seen by Reuters, as falling exports to China outweigh growing sales elsewhere in the region.
Germany's trade deficit with Asia-Pacific is set to hit a record of nearly 146 billion euros in 2026, according to a report by the state-owned trade promotion agency Germany Trade and Invest seen by Reuters, as falling exports to China outweigh growing sales elsewhere in the region.
Exports to 29 core Asia-Pacific economies are expected to fall 3.2 percent this year to 185.3 billion euros, while imports are forecast to rise 6.4 percent to 330.9 billion euros. China accounts for about half of Germany's goods trade with Asia-Pacific and has an outsized effect on the total: excluding China, German exports to the region would grow by 2.8 percent in 2026, and the deficit with Asia-Pacific would narrow to just under 35 billion euros.
The China drag is concentrated in the industries that once anchored German exports there. German machinery exports to China fell 18 percent in the first seven months of 2026 from a year earlier, and automotive exports dropped 30 percent over the same period. German car sales in China have nearly halved from a peak of more than 5 million vehicles, the report said, as Chinese manufacturers gain ground in electric cars and benefit from control over battery supply chains, while also expanding domestic production of advanced technology and machinery.
These figures are forecasts in a Germany Trade and Invest report as reported by Reuters, not published full-year trade statistics, and this piece attributes them that way. The report itself was seen by Reuters rather than published in full in the coverage reviewed, so the deficit, export and import totals are projections for 2026 that will be tested against the actual trade data. The component figures that support the headline are consistent within the same report: the export and import forecasts imply a deficit of about 145.6 billion euros, matching the reported nearly 146 billion euros.
The diversification story inside the same report runs the other way. India is becoming a more important market and supplier for German companies, with German exports to India nearly doubling over the past decade, as have imports from India, and German firms increasingly buying pharmaceutical products and machine components there alongside clothing. Exports to the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations are expected to grow faster than imports in 2026, helped by aircraft deliveries, and Japan remains a relatively stable market despite the yen's sharp fall against the euro and dollar over the past six years eroding Japanese purchasing power.
The next test is the actual 2026 trade data, which will show whether the China decline deepens or stabilises and whether India and Southeast Asia continue to offset it. For now, the report's message is that Germany's Asia-Pacific deficit is increasingly a China story, not a region-wide one.