ECB policymakers said underlying inflation looks milder than the headline, and the September meeting accounts still showed members saw risks tilted higher. A Reuters poll found almost all economists expect no move this month.
European Central Bank officials on Thursday played down the case for an immediate further rate rise, even as they left open the chance that inflation runs above already high projections, Reuters reported from Frankfurt and other European venues. The bank raised rates twice this summer. Markets have been pricing further moves as inflation sits near twice the 2 percent target and energy costs remain high.
Chief economist Philip Lane, speaking in London, said fiscal support that has propped up growth this year is likely to fade in 2027, which would cool both expansion and price pressure. Other policymakers pointed to underlying trends they described as more benign than the headline rate. Reuters said the comments suggested the council is not rushing the next increase.
Accounts of the 9-10 September meeting, released on Thursday, showed all members agreed that inflation risks are skewed higher because of energy volatility and wider uncertainty. Slovenian central bank governor Primoz Dolenc said elevated inflation in the September projection, and unresolved conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, supported moving rates toward more restrictive territory.
A Reuters poll of 73 economists found nearly all expect the ECB to hold this month, with most looking to December for the next move. The poll is a survey of forecasters, not a council decision.
No rate was set on Thursday. The new material is the September accounts and the public comments that pulled near-term hike pricing back, not a change in the policy rate.
People Sentiments Neutral
- Primoz Dolenc said elevated inflation and unresolved conflicts supported more restrictive rates.
- Philip Lane said fiscal support is likely to fade in 2027 and dampen inflation pressure.