The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.07 in September from a revised minus 0.08 in August, with production contributing 0.13 while consumption and housing dragged, and the three-month average edging up to 0.03.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.07 in September from a revised minus 0.08 in August, moving above zero for the first time in months and signalling activity slightly above its historical trend. A reading above zero means the economy is expanding faster than its long-run average, while a reading below zero means it is growing more slowly.
Production did the work. Production-related indicators contributed 0.13 to the index, up from minus 0.06 in August, and sales, orders and inventories added 0.02, up from minus 0.03. Employment-related indicators were neutral, while personal consumption and housing subtracted 0.08, down from a positive 0.02 contribution in August, leaving the headline gain narrower than the production rebound alone would suggest.
The three-month moving average, which smooths the monthly noise, rose to 0.03 from 0.01, and the September reading beat the minus 0.1 consensus. The August figure itself was revised down, from minus 0.04 to minus 0.08, a reminder that the first estimate of any month is provisional and that the story of the summer is flatter than it first appeared.
Dow Jones reporting of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago release confirms each component and the revised August figure, and the bank's own release calendar confirms that October 26 was the scheduled publication date for the September index. The numbers describe the economy before the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28, which Reuters reporting says is expected to hold rates steady.
For policymakers the release argues for patience rather than celebration. A single month above zero, built on production while households and housing drag, is a picture of an economy growing unevenly, and the three-month average of 0.03 is barely above trend at all.
The next reading, for October, is scheduled for November 23, and it will show whether September's production rebound held or whether the drag from consumption and housing widened into the autumn.