The Bay of Bengal system became Cyclone Arnab on Monday morning and is forecast to strengthen into a very severe cyclonic storm before crossing the Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on October 28, with Odisha shutting schools in five districts and cancelling officials' leave.
Cyclone Arnab formed over the Bay of Bengal on Monday morning, the India Meteorological Department said, turning a depression that had been tracked since last week into a named storm on course for the Andhra Pradesh coast.
The department's timeline has the system strengthening into a severe cyclonic storm around Tuesday morning and a very severe cyclonic storm before it crosses the coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of October 28, with maximum sustained winds of 115 to 125 kilometres per hour and gusts up to 140 kilometres per hour at landfall. Red warnings for extremely heavy rain cover seven Andhra districts across October 27 and 28, and fishermen have been told to stay off the sea.
Odisha moved first on preparedness: the state shut schools in five districts and cancelled officials' leave as the system approached, while Andhra Pradesh's disaster management authority warned of heavy rain across districts including Vizianagaram, Manyam, Alluri, Kadapa, Annamayya, Chittoor and Tirupati, and the department added an extremely heavy rain warning for Telangana on October 28.
The forecast track, wind speeds and landfall window come from India Meteorological Department bulletins quoted by ANI and state reporting, and the school closures are reported from Odisha's preparedness announcements. Landfall timing and place remain a forecast, not a recorded event: earlier bulletins placed the crossing near Yanam as well as between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, and the department has said the exact location may shift as the storm moves.
For coastal communities, the stakes are flooding, wind damage to trees, power lines and temporary structures, and disruption to transport, with south Odisha also in line for heavy rain and rough seas even if the centre crosses in Andhra Pradesh.
The next bulletin will matter more than this one: whether Arnab holds its forecast track and intensity through Tuesday will decide which districts face the worst of the rain on Wednesday, and officials on both coasts are watching for the department's updated landfall guidance before ordering evacuations.